The NLCS heads back east on Wednesday night, and after seeing a lopsided split out west, it's hard to determine who’s really in the driver's seat. Oddsmakers still have the Dodgers as -155 favorites to win the series, but to do so, they’ll need to steal one on the road from MLB’s team of destiny: the Mets. Tonight’s Game Three is pivotal—well, actually, it's the NLCS, so every game is must-win and can’t-lose. What happens tonight in Queens? Let’s dive in.

Total: 7.5 O/U – Will the Cold Keep Runs Off the Board?

We love betting on homers in the postseason, and when you look at both teams thus far, it’s tempting to take the over. In their head-to-head matchups, the teams are averaging 9.37 runs per game. In six of their eight meetings this year, including postseason matchups, they’ve gone over 7 runs.

Consider the starting pitcher matchup, too. Walker Buehler comes in with a postseason ERA of 10.8, facing off against Luis Severino, who brings a 4.5 postseason ERA to the table. With all this data pointing to the over, why the hell would I be on the under?

Why I’m Betting the Under: Cold, Windy, and Wise Words from Belichick

It’s simple—sometimes you have to zag when everyone else zigs. While 7.5 may look low based on historical data, there’s a catch: the weather. As Bill Belichick famously said, "I’ll take the wind." Tonight in Queens, it’s going to be under 50 degrees with wind gusts from the southeast at 21 mph and a steady 12 mph breeze. Cold, windy conditions with the wind blowing in? I think the balls are staying in the park tonight. And while unders aren't as exciting, they can be profitable.

The Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)*

*This might get as high as 8.5 throughout the day I would keep an eye on it and bet it closer to game time but I will be playing under 7 tonight.