Friday night, the Celtics jumped out to a massive lead in the first quarter against the top-of-the-East Cleveland Cavaliers at the Garden. Jayson Tatum emphatically pointed to the exits, telling them to “Get the fuck out of here.” He proceeded to drop a 30-9-7 stat line in that half—a first-time feat in the play-by-play era.

They lost.

Today, they are back at the Garden, facing the top-of-the-West Denver Nuggets in ESPN’s Sunday Showcase. Right now, the Celtics are 3.5-point favorites despite being without Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. I’m laying the points, and here’s why.

The Celtics’ collapse Friday night was something that has plagued this team before. Typically, they respond by showing up big for the next one. They’re entering their third game in five days (0-2) against a Nuggets team playing its third in four (2-1).

I’m a rest-over-rust guy every day—and twice on Sunday (today!)—especially against a Nuggets squad playing on the East Coast. Yeah, yeah, yeah, they’ve been here for a week, but I’m a firm believer in time zones and body clocks. The external elements of this game make me love my C’s at home, even without Porziņģis or the peskiness of Holiday.

The Celtics haven’t lost three games in a row in over two years, and I don’t think that changes today. Give me a motivated team at home against Joker and a group of guys ready to get home and sleep in their own beds. Celtics -3.5 because there’s no other reason why.

The Celtics are the balls.

The Pick: Celtics -3.5 (-112)