For the second straight week, the NFL is back with another marquee matchup. So, what’s the best bet? The prized pick? The truest trend? Well, I've got your NFL picks this week and NFL player prop bets for Thursday night. Let’s dive in!

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5) | O/U: 48.5

Both Buffalo and Miami pulled off impressive Week 1 wins after falling behind early, only to storm back in dramatic fashion. But tonight, Miami’s typical advantage—playing in the scorching South Florida sun—won’t be as effective. It’s expected to be 82°F and cloudy. The Dolphins are also facing a bit of a distraction after Tyreek Hill’s detainment earlier in the week. However, considering they came back from a 17-point deficit last week, they’ve proven distractions won’t hold them back.

Speaking of comebacks, Buffalo also rallied from a 17-point hole. While the Jaguars crumbled after their comeback, ending the game with a total of 37 points, the Cardinals kept fighting, with their matchup against Buffalo with the game finishing at 62 points.

Game Breakdown: Bills, Points, and the Over

With the heat factor removed, some distraction in play, and both teams showing comeback potential, my data-driven NFL pick for the spread is Buffalo +2.5.

Now, let’s talk about totals. Prime-time unders are a popular trend, and we've seen this line shift from 51 to 48.5. However, when betting a standalone game like this, my advice is simple: take the over. Both defenses showed weaknesses in Week 1, with Miami's defense looking shaky, and Buffalo giving up big plays. The Over 48.5 feels like a solid play.

NFL Player Prop: Tyreek Hill to Score 2+ Touchdowns

For my favorite Thursday Night NFL Player Prop, I’m looking at Tyreek Hill to score 2+ touchdowns. DraftKings has been offering No Sweat TD bets, so it's wise to use them on long shots or multi-touchdown plays. Hill’s speed is always a threat, and with extra motivation this week, I expect Miami’s coach, McDaniel, to scheme up some big plays for him against Buffalo’s suspect secondary.

Bets Recap:

Side: Bills +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 48.5 (-112)
NFL Player Prop: Tyreek Hill 2+ TDs (+500) No Sweat Bet