A 1-1 Patriots team heads to the Meadowlands to take on an Aaron Rodgers-led 1-1 Jets team. Historically, the Pats have owned the Jets (77-55-1). However, Tom Brady is not walking through that door, and Bill Belichick is not walking through that door. The Jets are favorites for a reason. So, what’s the best bet? The prized pick? The truest trend? Well, I've got your NFL picks and props for Thursday Night Football.

New England @ New York (-6) | O/U: 38.5

Jared Mayo shocked the world and pissed in survivor pools everywhere in Week 1, taking down the Bengals 16-10. Meanwhile, on Monday night, the once-sturdy Jets defense crashed and burned like they were built by Boeing in Santa Clara, falling 31-19.

Fast forward to Week 2: after a late fourth-quarter blocked kick, the Pats fell to Seattle in OT, while mayo-for-brains Will Levis turned the ball over twice, helping the Jets get their first win. Both these teams like to muck it up and run the ball, but while the Pats' offensive line has been as bad as expected, the Jets' pass rush has been surprisingly ineffective.

Game Breakdown: Pats, Points, and the Under

Prime-time unders are 3-3 this season, going a perfect 3-for-3 in Week 2. The Jets are averaging 21.5 points per game, while the Pats average 16.5. This makes under 38.5 just barely the play based on the data. Considering the total was set at 40 last week, it seems like the sharp play has sportsbooks begging you to take the over.

Another interesting bit of line movement: the Jets opened as a touchdown favorite but have since fallen to just a six-point favorite. Both teams like to slog through games, and with the Patriots unable to throw the ball and the Jets struggling to stop the run, I like the Patriots to keep Rodgers, Wilson, and Hall off the field and grinding the clock. I’ll take the points, please!

NFL Player Prop: Over 9.5 Punts

A sneaky, fun prop bet in the NFL is combined punts. While more teams are going for it on fourth down thanks to analytics, these teams have averaged a combined10 punts through four games. As a punt head who sees this game as a low-scoring, field-position battle, I’ll take the over on punts!

Bets Recap:

Side: Patriots +6 (-110)
Total: Under 38.5 (-110)
NFL Player Prop: Over 9.5 punts (-120)