Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+2.5) | O/U: 44

Baker and the Bus are having fun down in Tampa Bay! And at 3-1 with big wins over the Lions and Eagles, why shouldn’t they be? After a subdued week against Denver, the offense looked back in stride on Sunday against the Eagles. They’re currently in first place in the division. The Falcons, on the other hand, who were favored to win the division, have been the model of inconsistency. It’s hard to pin this team down when all their games have been decided by just one score. So, what happens when they host Baker and the Boys on Thursday night? Let’s jump in.

Game Breakdown: Bucs, Points, Under

I’m not sure why Tampa Bay is an underdog here, but at +2.5 (essentially a typical home-field advantage), this game is much closer to a pick ’em. Given that the Falcons have played all their games to within one score, betting on a dog against them makes sense from a mathematical standpoint. Also, the Buccaneers are simply a good team. They have an offense that can strike at any time and a defense that held Detroit—maybe the best offensive play-calling team in the league—to just 16 points. Factoring in these elements, I like Tampa Bay quite a bit and think they could win outright.

I’m also considering their defensive prowess when targeting the under. The Falcons are averaging just 18.75 points per game and are more than happy to trot out Younghoe Koo and take the points if they’re in range. The only concern for the under in this game is if Tampa Bay’s offense explodes, but playing on the road should limit that possibility. I like the under and the underdog in tonight’s Thursday Night Football.

NFL Game Prop: Over 3.5 FGs Made

If it feels like the Falcons are always in an end-of-game spot where they need Younghoe Koo to be a hero, that’s not just recency bias—that’s the facts, Jack! The Falcons are averaging a total of 5.25 field goals per game. While Tampa Bay has been better at finding the end zone through their first four games, they’re still averaging 3.5 field goals. With both teams on short rest and the numbers favoring field goals, I’m going over 3.5 FGs tonight in what I suspect will be a low-scoring affair.

Bets Recap:

Side: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-112)
Total: Under 44 (-112)
NFL Game Prop: Over 3.5 FGs (-110)