The second round of NBA Cup games is being played tonight across the country. And if that doesn’t get you fired up for league action, you’re not alone—most NBA fans are in the same boat.

Still, tonight’s Cup matchups feature some notable teams squaring off, none more so than the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers heading to the Garden for a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals against a Celtics team that has started this season a bit subdued.

So, what does that mean for the Celtics' team total? Let’s break it down.

Why the Data Points to the Under

There are two key stats that suggest the Celtics' team total of 119.5 (-125) will go under tonight:

Home Performance:
So far this season, the Celtics are averaging just 118.3 points per game at home, surpassing 120 points in only two of their six home games.
Cavs' Road Defense:
The Cavaliers have been strong defensively on the road, allowing an average of 111.4 points per game. They’ve only allowed more than 120 points once in their seven road games so far this season.

Why I’m Leaning Over

Despite what the data says, there are two factors that lead me to favor the over tonight:

Matchups:
The Cavaliers, while undefeated, have benefited from facing weaker competition on the road so far. The Celtics are a significant step up in talent and offensive firepower, especially at home off of two days rest.
Strength of Schedule and Spacing Advantage:
This is a great "get-right" opportunity for the Celtics to showcase dominance, particularly from behind the arc. Boston’s shooters match up well against a Cavaliers team with a frontcourt advantage. The Celtics’ spacing, ball movement, and perimeter shooting should be the X-factor tonight provided shoots are falling.

For these reasons, and despite data that leans toward the under, I like the Celtics to exceed 119.5 points tonight.

The Pick:

Celtics Team Total Over 119.5 (-125)