Week 4: AP Top 25 Goldilocks Rankings
Week four brought us some thrilling matchups, leaving many questions about the talent in the AP poll. Is Michigan better than their week two loss to Texas suggested? Is Oklahoma in trouble? Can Utah compete without Cam Rising? Let's break down the rankings Goldilocks-style and see which are too hot, too cold, or just right.
1. Texas (44) - Just Right
No Ewers, no problem. Arch stepped in for their first start and ran the offense well, to the tune of 51 points. Granted, it was against Louisiana Monroe, but the Longhorns stay atop the AP for now. Their victory in the Big House looks even better after Michigan handled SC with a last-minute drive.
2. Georgia (13) - Just Right
Georgia stays cozy in the two spot on their bye week. All eyes will be on Georgia as they head to Tuscaloosa for a showdown with #4 Bama.
3. Ohio State (5) - Too Hot
Ohio State has undeniable talent on both sides of the ball, but they still have yet to play any opponents worth a damn. Even with Ohio State letting up the first score of the game this week to Marshall, no one panicked, and the Buckeyes handled business. It will be interesting to see how they play the next three opponents, starting this week with Michigan State.
4. Alabama - Just Right
Alabama went into their bye after a great win in Camp Randall. Four feels right for them heading into their showdown with Georgia. I could see them winning outright or being exposed for the preseason concerns. For now, four is right for the Tide. We will see them climb up to 2 or fall as far as 9 or 10.
5. Tennessee - Just Right
Heupel called off the dogs in the 2nd half in Norman on Saturday night, electing to only score six in the 2nd. But make no mistake, their performance against Oklahoma was dominant. If they had buried the Schooners on Saturday, I think they’d be as high as three.
6. Ole Miss - Just Right
Kiffin keeps killing teams that aren’t any good. This Ole Miss team might be offensively special, but until they play a competent defense, they should probably hang around 6 or 7.
7. Miami (FL) - Too Cold
Miami has been spectacular this season. They have the current Heisman favorite in Cam Ward, and they have looked dominant in all four games. The AP keeping them at seven is more about their lack of upcoming schedule strength.
8. Oregon - Too Hot
Oregon looked good the last time out against an in-state rival, but with the amount of quality games actually played this week, I’m not sure they should climb on their bye week.
9. Penn State - Just Right
James Franklin went for a late-game score to cover the spread, reminding betting alum why they love him and reassuring AP poll voters that Bowling Green was more of a fluke.
10. Utah - Just Right
The Utes went in and dominated Oklahoma State. Despite some late-game heroics that made this look a little bit closer on the scoreboard, the win was impressive without Cam Rising. I previously believed that the Utes could only go as far as Cam Rising’s health. That might not be the case.
11. Missouri - Too Hot
After barely beating Boston College, Missouri didn’t bounce back against Vanderbilt and needed a missed FG in overtime. It’s starting to look like the clock has hit midnight for the Tigers as they head into conference play.
12. Michigan - Just Right
Michigan made the change at quarterback, announcing to opponents that they were no longer interested in passing the ball. And it worked. Against a much-improved SC defense, Michigan ran the ball down their throat to win late in the fourth. It looks like they might have found their identity. Leaping six spots feels right for a team that played their best ball in a big spot.
13. USC - Just Right
USC looked out of sorts to start the game in the Big House but made adjustments at the half and had a good chance to win it. Miller Moss had a costly pick-six, and the defense couldn’t keep Michigan out of the end zone. Still, a great road loss for the Trojans, who showed this new-found defense is not a fluke and can travel.
14. LSU - Too Hot
It’s crazy what a name will get you in the AP Poll. LSU isn’t good. They shouldn’t have beaten South Carolina, and beating up on a very bad UCLA team at home certainly doesn’t earn them two spots further up.
15. Louisville - Just Right
Louisville continues to be impressive, beating up on a Georgia Tech team that was ranked a couple of weeks ago. They have a chance to prove it when they head to Notre Dame this weekend.
16. Notre Dame - Too Hot
They lost to NIU. Nuff said. I’ll be curious to see what they look like this week against Louisiana. Notre Dame has to be perfect the rest of the year to have a shot at the playoff, so having them as high as 16 feels generous.
17. Clemson - Just Right
Clemson keeps climbing after their disastrous Week Zero loss to Georgia. Granted, NC State isn’t the team the AP preseason thought they were, but that was a dominant win at home.
18. Iowa State - Too Hot
Iowa State beat the hell out of Arkansas State, but they should be at #20. I don’t think moving up two spots for that win is warranted.
19. Illinois - Too Cold
Illinois had a huge win Friday night in Nebraska. Even with their earlier win against Kansas looking less impressive, this was a big road win. Feels like Illinois should be a bit higher up.
20. Oklahoma State - Just Right
Losing at home in your first Big 12 test is going to drop you in the poll. There were a few positives for the Cowboys late in the game, but after struggles with Arkansas and now a loss to Utah, it will be interesting to see where this team finishes.
21. Oklahoma - Too Hot
Oklahoma’s struggles were on full display in Norman on Saturday night in front of the nation. They benched their starting quarterback, and while the defense looked good, it was clear Tennessee slowed it down in the 2nd half.
22. BYU - Just Right
BYU has looked pretty decent this season, but any doubts about their opponents were put to rest when K-State came to town, and the Cougars dominated. Getting ranked feels correct for that performance against the former #13 team in the nation.
23. Kansas State - Just Right
K-State needs to be behind BYU after losing to them. But falling a full 10 spots after an upset is pretty harsh, even by AP Poll standards.
24. Texas A&M - Too Hot
I’m not sure why the Aggies are back in the top 25. I wasn’t sold last week, and surviving Bowling Green did nothing to convince me. The Aggies aren’t a top 25 team.
25. Boise State - Too Cold
Boise State was the Group of Five favorite to make the playoff preseason. Ashton Jeanty looks like the best tailback in all of college football, and their only loss is to a #8 Oregon. They should be ranked higher.