Lord willing, if the creek don't rise... The final five AP poll teams. These are the teams that absolutely should hear their names on December 8th. There is not a lot of value in betting these teams to make the playoff, but let's take a look at their odds, schedules, and key additions and losses for each. It is not surprising that three of the teams are from the SEC and the other two are from the Big Ten. Let's jump in.

5 - Alabama (+100)

On January 10th, SEC fans rejoiced. The entire conference sang in unison, "Ding Dong The Saban's Dead." Well, everyone except for the people down in Tuscaloosa - Bama fans wept. They would then go on to lose 26 players to the portal, 14 of them being 5-star recruits. And then, they struck out on their coaching hire, missing out on their top three candidates before landing on Kalen DeBoer.

But Bama is still here at #5 and is even money to make the playoff for good reason. They are returning some starters, and this is Alabama, so their talent pipeline is unmatched. Also, even if he was not their first choice, or second, or third, or maybe even fourth, Kalen DeBoer is a hell of a coach, with a college coaching record of 104-12 and a 12-2 record against ranked teams at Fresno State and Washington.

The biggest returning starter for Bama is controversial quarterback Jalen Milroe. Controversial in the sense that people are very divided on his ability as a passer, but are in agreement that he has some serious wheels. DeBoer will be bringing an offense heavy on designed runs and deep balls to offset some of his shortcomings. He also will have a monster offensive line to keep him clean and win the trenches.

The Crimson Tide does have a bear of a schedule, though. With five of their twelve games against preseason ranked opponents and three of the five being on the road, DeBoer is going to have a steep learning curve. Still, with the top four SEC teams likely making the playoff, Alabama still having the brand recognition, and at even money, this would be a good bet.

4 - Texas (-230)

"New place, same faces" is not quite correct for Steve Sarkisian, who is an SEC veteran. Texas should be able to make a smooth transition to their new conference, retaining some of their top-tier talent with a favorable schedule.

Quinn Ewers is probably the most notable returning talent on the team. But, Texas as a whole ranks second in the SEC in returning production. They are just a year removed from their appearance in the CFP and they avoid Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Missouri. They also have a coach in Sarkisian who finally feels like he has found his footing as a head coach down in Austin.

The possible issues Texas could face heading into this season are regression at the quarterback position, road struggles early against Michigan and late against A&M, and the possibility, even though it is slim, that they struggle in their first year in a new conference. The Longhorns are not a great price to just make the playoff, but are at 7 to 1 to win it all if you believe in Sark and the returning talent. I think a better bet would be the Longhorns heading to the Big House in week two.

3 - Oregon (-300)

Dan Lanning was Alabama's first call when Saban let them know he would be retiring. But in Jordan Belfort fashion, the fiery 38-year-old let the Ducks know he ain't leaving. The Ducks enter the Big Ten after a disappointing 12-2 season, with both losses coming to Washington, including the final Pac-12 championship, which kept them from last year's CFP.

Despite the Ducks changing conferences, they have no plans to change their explosive offense, replacing Bo Nix with transfer Dillon Gabriel, who is the odds-on favorite to win this year's Heisman. Gabriel will also inherit four of the Ducks' top five pass catchers. There is a bit more turnover on the other side of the ball, which was the Pac-12's best scoring defense last year, but they have stocked up in the portal and have a ton of talent for Tosh Lupoi in his third year as DC.

This is an Oregon team that should have no problem reaching the CFP with only two ranked opponents. Unless the change of scenery proves to be a style mismatch nightmare, I like the Ducks to outscore most Big Ten teams by a lot. I think it is likely that they will play Ohio State in a rematch for the Big Ten title. Their current win total is even money at 10.5 and affords them the opportunity to drop one regular-season game. This would be the best future for a Ducks team that should have no trouble making the change to central time.

2 - Ohio State (-650)

Ohio State comes into the season at #2 in the AP poll and #2 in their most important rivalry after the last three years losing to Michigan. That changes this year, as the favorite to win the now conference-less Big Ten, Ohio State does not have a lack of talent.

The questions about Coach Day are warranted. However, this season, Day has given up play-calling duties (for the first time) to one of the best offensive minds in the sport, Chip Kelly. Kelly comes from the Pac-12, where in eight seasons, his teams led the conference all eight years in rush yards. Ohio State will be moving from their pass-forward, flashy offense back to defense and running the damn ball. And why shouldn't they? Their backfield features two of the most talented ball carriers in the country with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.

This is a team that, barring disaster, will be in the college football playoff and possibly hosting if they are not tripped up at all by the new comers to the conference. At -650, there is no value in a playoff future. Look at them to win the National Championship at +380 or the Big Ten at +155 if you are deciding to be a Buckeye bettor this season.

1 - Georgia (-600)

Number one in the AP poll is the mean machine in the red and black. And while I think I agree with the AP that there might not be anything finer in the land, Kirby has once again dealt with an offseason packed with off-the-field incidents. That being said, 2023 was similar, and they still managed a 12-1 season. Their only loss in the SEC championship is likely the reason they did not get a three-peat.

This is a team with a ton of talent, a great (football) coach, and no longer will be dealing with division or the boogeyman Nick Saban. A quarterback in Carson Beck who is already being mocked as a top-five Sunday talent. Depth at every position that is unmatched in college football.

The Dawgs are a lock to be heading to the college football playoff, likely with a bye and the #1 seed. The best value for UGA and the lads is +190 to win a divisionless SEC. There would need to be a serious setback or slip-up to keep the Dawgs from playing in the final four.

And that concludes the CFP betting guide AP poll. I hope you learned a little and can make a lot. But mostly, I hope you are half as excited as I am to have ball back on Saturdays. The expanded playoff and conference realignment will certainly provide some wrinkles this season, but for the most part, it's the same old college game we know and love. Enjoy the season, and see you back here for weekly picks and insights.