What is this, my birthday?! Two Monday Night Football games are being played this evening to help ease the comedown from an absolutely bonkers football weekend. The 0-2 Jaguars are heading to face the 2-0 Bills, while the Bengals look to pick up their first win against the Commanders, who snuck away with a victory against a kicker-less Giants team. What’s the best bet? The top trends? The prized picks for both Monday Night Football games? I’ve got the sides and totals to help you finish out Week 3 of the NFL.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-5.5) | O/U: 46.5

The Bills have looked great through their first two games. They’re coming off a mini bye after beating Miami on Thursday Night Football. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, even with the departures of Diggs and Davis; in fact, it looks even better, scoring over 30 points in both games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost to the Browns and Dolphins, failing to score more than 17 points in both matchups. With the line only at 5.5, you have to wonder—is this an Admiral Ackbar “It’s a trap!” situation?

Still, if you want to apply the transitive property of NFL victories: The Dolphins beat the Jaguars 20-17, and the Bills beat the Dolphins 31-10. I’m okay laying the points with the Bills at home in prime time.

Washington @ Cincinnati (-7.5) | O/U: 46.5

The Bengals are sitting in last place in the AFC North and face a must-win tonight at home. Lucky for them, they’re playing a Washington Commanders team that is just flat-out no good. The Commanders rank last in virtually every defensive metric, so this should be a get-right game for Joey B and the boys. That being said, the line moving to 7.5 makes me a bit wary of a possible backdoor cover. Plus, I’d feel a bit like a points-eating weasel if I took both favorites on Monday night. So, give me the Commanders catching 7.5.

Totals

As I’ve mentioned, the Bills' offense is a wagon (pun intended). Also mentioned: the Washington defense is *butt cheeks*. With the total set at 46.5 for both games, I’ve got the same play for both—*under*. Prime-time unders in September are 22-9 over the last three years. So far this season, they’re 5-3. I think both the Bills and Bengals are going to score tonight, but I don’t have the same faith in the Jaguars and Commanders.

Bets Recap

Side: Bills -5.5 (-110)

Side: Commanders +7.5 (-110)

Total: Under 46.5 (-110)