This afternoon, the United States will play Brazil in the quarterfinal of Men's basketball. They come into the matchup against Brazil as a heavy favorite, currently -26.5 (-108). The States are 3-0 in Olympic play, while Brazil is just 1-2 and was the last team into the elimination stage. While most oddsmakers and fans alike suspect this match to be a blowout, let's dive into some numbers to see if we can find a winner.

While the United States is 3-0 in the Olympics, they are just 1-2 against the spread and did not cover a single game in the friendlies. The idea that this team would flip some sort of switch and play inspired team basketball once the games started is long dead. Ball movement is a dirty word on the Kerr-coached team; talent alone has gotten it done for this group of NBA stars. Despite point differential playing a part in seeding, often the end of games for USA sees the team lethargic and content, which is a contributing factor in them being 1-2 against the points.

However, Brazil has no business being in play this late in the tournament. At 1-2, they average 80.3 points while allowing 82.6. They are very familiar with the role of the scrappy underdog and, despite having less talent, size, and skill, will bring the effort in this afternoon's matchup.

When considering the States' average score of 105.6 and Brazil's 80.3 average, it seems like bookmakers are right on the mark with the number 26. However, historically (the last two months), I have witnessed firsthand how the men's team closes out games. They lack effort or a killer instinct when up double digits late, while Brazil is not just happy to be here. Point differential no longer matters, but performing well in the Olympics likely does to this squad.

I think the data and the eyeballs suggest taking the points. I fully anticipate a sweat and will be relying heavily on the United States' stale end-of-game effort. I suspect they'll cruise but will remain on cruise control in the final minutes rather than stepping on the gas late.

The Pick: Brazil +26.5 (-108)