It seems like the first debate on June 27th was closer to 10 years ago than 10 weeks. Since that date, there has been an assassination attempt on President Trump, Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and the world became aware of Australian breakdancing superstar Raygun.

The first debate was a disaster if you were a supporter of Joe Biden. A delight if you supported Donald Trump. And, déjà vu if you’ve ever bartended at a country club, with the two 78-year-olds arguing over scorecards, and golf handicaps.

Some of the previous debate prop bets like “Biden To Soil Himself At the Podium +5000” or “Biden To Fall Asleep At The Podium +2500,” which seemed like disrespectful long shots at the time, left us wondering if we missed a couple of great value plays. But we’re back with a prop bet breakdown.

With Vice President Harris now as the candidate, I think we can expect a bit of a normal(?) debate. Let’s take a look at the prop market brought to you by an offshore book and break down some odds.

Colour of Trump's Tie

There’s absolutely no value in tie color bets for Donald. The thought of trying to reach across the aisle in the form of formal wear is long gone. Donald Trump is a red tie guy. A bow tie would look insane on him but would be very funny. The long-shot stars and stripes tie would also be something, but even at 20-1, it does not seem worth a sprinkle.

Red -1200
Blue +550
Silver/Grey +1400
Green +1600
Pink/Purple +1600
Full Stars and Stripes Design +2000
Gold +2000
Black +4000
Brown +4000
Orange/Peach +4000
No Tie +5000
Yellow +5000
White/Cream +8000
Bow Tie +10000

Colour of Harris' Outfit

Harris’s outfit presents a bit more intrigue than a tie. This would be the dominant color, and the Vice President has been photographed in a variety of dark, neutral-colored pant suits since her campaign began. The stars and stripes outfit would go crazy for the VP, but I think the value on black or burgundy is pretty solid here.

Blue -150
Black +300
White/Cream +600
Red/Burgundy +700
Brown/Beige +750
Pink/Purple +1200
Silver/Grey +1200
Green +2000
Gold +3000
Orange/Peach +4000
Yellow +4000
Full Stars and Stripes Design +10000

ABC Debate Winner

Kamala Harris -275
Donald Trump +200

According to the first poll to determine the winner published by ABC News or FiveThirtyEight.com. If none is published before Sept 20th, the bookmaker will consult other credible pollsters to form a final decision.

My first assessment of a debate winner couldn’t have gone worse if President Biden did, in fact, fall asleep and soil himself. This one, though, should be straightforward—Harris will win by poll measures unless she somehow falls asleep or soils herself.

First Mentioned State

California -110
Pennsylvania -110
New York +800
Georgia +1200
Wisconsin +1200
Nevada +1400
Florida +1800
Minnesota +1800
Arizona +2000
North Carolina +2000
Michigan +2200

This has some intrigue. Harris was the Attorney General for California, something the Trump campaign has been highlighting as a failure. But Pennsylvania will be a key election state, and name-checking it might be a savvy play by either candidate. That being said, so is Wisconsin, and Donald Trump was just there days ago. At 12-1, Wisconsin is a good play. Georgia could also be worth a mention following the tragic events at Apalachee High School last week.

To Be Said by Donald Trump

These are by far the most interesting aspects of the prop market but are only worth touching at plus money. My favorites here are "Fake News" at +225. Fake News was an absolute staple of Trump’s 2020 campaign. Pair that with an “AI-Generated” (+400) and “Infomercial” (+400), and you could be looking at a decent chunk of change if the conversation takes that course.

Three and a half years -2000
Violent crime -800
Inflation crisis -200
Most unpopular vice president in history -200
Comrade Kamala Harris -125
Drill baby drill -105
Nation in decline EVEN
Radical Marxist EVEN
Fake news +225
Border, inflation, and crime +250
AI-generated +400
Infomercial +400
Whatever her name is +500
I get bigger crowds than you +600

To Be Said by Kamala Harris

Harris hasn’t had nearly as much time in the limelight as Trump, so these phrases aren’t quite as intriguing or familiar. She also seems less unhinged, so they’re a bit boring. I like the Elon Musk mention even if it’s not at plus money. Not only has Trump mentioned creating a position for the X owner, but he also appeared in an interview with him weeks ago. I also like “peaceful transfer of power” at +175, as it feels like something the Vice President might press Trump on. And, for the longest of long shots, “Where’s Melania?” at 50-1 is a fun bet if the VP starts to get spicy.

Project 2025 -1200
Opportunity economy -800
Not going back -500
American dream -400
Playing politics with our security -250
Convicted felon -175
Rule of law -150
Elon Musk -120
Peaceful transfer of power +175
Divisive battles +200
Dog whistle +225
Justice for all +250
Not a serious man +300
Whatever that was +350
Shut the hell up +5000
Where’s Melania? +5000

Handshake?

Yes +225
No -310

Applies to whether or not Harris and Trump shake hands immediately before, after, or during the debate; must be visible in the first televised broadcast.

NO. There is no chance this occurs. I think you could make the same prop about Donald Trump and any woman ever. At -310, “No” actually has incredible value as it should probably be closer to -10000.

So, there’s the prop market breakdown for tonight’s debate. I’m looking forward to it and hope for another round of schadenfreude like last time. Although, I suspect golf handicaps won’t come up again.