Tonight, the Phillies will try to extend their season and stave off the Mets on the road after last night's 2-7 loss. Once again, the total score went above 7 runs, marking the 12th time in 15 meetings that these two teams have exceeded 7 runs, including all three games so far in this NLDS.

If you've been following along, last night looked grim through the first five innings before the Mets’ bats woke up, while the Phillies managed to tack on a couple runs to avoid being shut out and hit the over. Tonight, the over/under is set at 7.5. So, should we run it back?

The answer is likely no, but there's something romantic about postseason baseball. This game will either turn into a shootout or the Phillies will get shut down early. From a data-driven perspective, taking the over isn’t a reckless wager. From the standpoint of someone who loves a fun bet, though, the over is a must-bet.

I'm certainly hoping the Phillies can extend the series tonight on the road, forcing a winner-takes-all Game 5. For them to pull that off, their bats need to wake up like they did in Game 2. With a relatively warm night in Queens for mid-October (66 degrees) and a brisk wind blowing out to right field, 8 runs seem very much in play. Let’s go, Phils—but more importantly, let’s go, bats.

The Pick: Over 7.5 (-118)